Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.0K

Realised

$-46.26

Win rate

200 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET
294 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
YES
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-1.70
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
71 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
56 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
45 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$5.34Aug 15, 10:24 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$5.34Aug 15, 10:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$5.35Aug 15, 08:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$5.35Aug 15, 08:19 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$5.30Jul 18, 12:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$5.21Jul 18, 11:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET$5.29Jul 18, 11:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$5.25Jul 18, 11:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$5.31Jul 18, 11:38 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$18.52Jul 18, 11:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$5.23Jul 18, 11:28 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$5.26Jul 18, 11:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$5.31Jul 18, 11:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$5.18Jul 18, 11:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$5.26Jul 18, 10:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET$5.21Jul 18, 10:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$5.21Jul 18, 10:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$5.20Jul 18, 10:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$5.17Jul 18, 10:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$5.24Jul 18, 10:03 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

63/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 200 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

200 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity70 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry66 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk26 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 40
Avg trade size: $5.24
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 18, 06:10 UTC
Last active: Aug 15, 10:24 UTC
Win rate sample: 200 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 10:42:09 UTC·src:Polymarket Data