Sturdy-Diffuse
0xac1fea161a2c092cb197d68a2d56757166d5cf6a
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
141
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-221.75
Realised
$2.90
Win rate
73%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 141- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 3?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 3?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 3?
350 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 31?
210 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 6?
168 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.17
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3?
159 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 30?
150 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 3?
140 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 6?
137 shares @ 9.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-12.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$2.39Jul 12, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$3.68Jul 11, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$2.59Jul 11, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET$1.00Jul 11, 23:53 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$4.89Jul 11, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$3.15Jul 11, 07:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3AM ET$2.51Jul 11, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3AM ET$2.64Jul 11, 07:26 UTC
- REDEEMMexico vs. England: Both Teams to Score$5.00Jul 6, 03:18 UTC
- REDEEMMexico vs. England: England O/U 0.5$5.00Jul 6, 03:18 UTC
- REDEEMMexico vs. England: Mexico O/U 1.5$5.00Jul 6, 03:18 UTC
- REDEEMMexico vs. England: Mexico O/U 0.5$5.00Jul 6, 03:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 England?$1.65Jul 6, 00:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 England?$1.11Jul 6, 00:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYMexico vs. England: Mexico O/U 1.5$1.53Jul 6, 00:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYMexico vs. England: England O/U 0.5$3.58Jul 6, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYMexico vs. England: Mexico O/U 0.5$3.38Jul 6, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYMexico vs. England: Both Teams to Score$2.59Jul 6, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYMexico vs. England: Team to Advance$14.92Jul 6, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$1.98Jul 4, 04:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $1.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 07:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.