Horrible-Temporariness
0xac29126786f92dfdbf0c0adc1225e32aeae6e734
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
5
Open notional
$55.22
Total PnL
$-6.90
Realised
$-0.12
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 13?
55 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$55.22
$0.22
- NO
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?
26 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?
25 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?
3 shares @ 95.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 13?$55.02Jul 13, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?$1.05Jul 13, 13:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?$1.63Jul 13, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?$2.27Jul 13, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 23?$2.38Jul 13, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23?$2.44Jul 13, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23?$3.19Jul 13, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?$33.71Jul 13, 13:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.1KJul 7, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.1KJun 22, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23?$2.02Jun 22, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?$3.01Jun 22, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23?$3.01Jun 22, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 23?$2.02Jun 22, 16:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$100.00May 11, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?$33.03May 10, 12:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?$1.03May 10, 12:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by Dec 31?$13.98May 10, 12:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold close between $4800 and $4900 at the end of 2025?$20.26May 10, 12:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold close between $4900 and $5000 at the end of 2025?$20.28May 10, 12:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
8/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $312.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 6, 17:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 13:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.