Definite-Stool
0xac2d769c42b52188c809d7e299902a5b86aaa9c4
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-50.74
Realised
$-12.15
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Paul Salomone be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?
83 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-12.48
- NO
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians
44 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-21.52
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in June?
3 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.83
- NO
Will Dan Schwartz be the Democratic nominee for MD-01?
2 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-0.55
- YES
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?
2 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.48
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?
2 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.98
- NO
Will UnitedHealth Group (UNH) beat quarterly earnings?
1 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.46
- NO
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 15 be between 85 and 90?
1 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-0.30
Recent activity
- REWARD$4.80Jun 15, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?$1.63Jun 14, 15:12 UTC
- REDEEMAI data center moratorium passed before 2027?$0.72Jun 14, 15:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ecuador be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?$5.06Jun 14, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ecuador be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?$38.97Jun 14, 14:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?$9.88Jun 14, 09:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?$11.76Jun 14, 09:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?$18.07Jun 14, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?$28.86Jun 14, 09:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?$31.62Jun 14, 09:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Panama be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup?$8.52Jun 14, 08:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 4+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.71Jun 14, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$13.71Jun 14, 07:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Panama be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup?$9.57Jun 14, 07:16 UTC
- REWARD$24.79Jun 14, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$22.85Jun 13, 23:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$13.27Jun 13, 22:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4.05Jun 13, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$25.92Jun 13, 22:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$16.20Jun 13, 22:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $14.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 13:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.