Adorable-Gorilla
0xac32925da417756a171cd9bd8762bc3f2f522e93
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$49.90
Total PnL
$-168.91
Realised
$-11.86
Win rate
5%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on August 14?
10 shares @ 98.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$10.00
$0.13
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on August 13?
10 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$10.00
$0.04
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on August 15?
10 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$10.00
$0.20
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on August 15?
10 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$10.00
$0.10
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on August 15?
4 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$4.00
$0.04
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on August 16?
4 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$3.64
$0.03
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on August 16?
2 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$2.26
$0.02
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
121 shares @ 41.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
58 shares @ 85.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
45 shares @ 27.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-12.40
Recent activity
- REDEEMWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on August 12?$10.00Aug 12, 23:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on August 16?$3.61Aug 12, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on August 15?$9.81Aug 12, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on August 15?$3.96Aug 12, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on August 14?$9.88Aug 12, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on August 13?$9.96Aug 12, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on August 16?$2.24Aug 12, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on August 15?$9.90Aug 12, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on August 12?$9.90Aug 12, 17:19 UTC
- REDEEMWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 11?$10.00Aug 12, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 11?$8.65Aug 11, 18:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin above 66,400 on July 21, 10PM ET?$14.25Jul 22, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above 66,400 on July 21, 10PM ET?$3.86Jul 22, 01:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above 66,400 on July 21, 10PM ET?$8.80Jul 22, 01:52 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum above 1,930 on July 21, 10PM ET?$4.25Jul 22, 01:46 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum above 1,930 on July 21, 10PM ET?$4.25Jul 22, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum above 1,930 on July 21, 10PM ET?$3.65Jul 22, 01:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum above 1,930 on July 21, 10PM ET?$3.72Jul 22, 01:43 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$11.10Jul 17, 23:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$11.01Jul 17, 23:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $16.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 18:14 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 23:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.