Diligent-Short
0xac71338809e1dba49cd6e8e5b2a30dba760df74c
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$38.14
Total PnL
$-139.99
Realised
$-6.65
Win rate
45%
88 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 14?
5 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$5.00
$0.80
- NO
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
5 shares @ 96.0¢·now 96.8¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$4.84
$0.04
- NO
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?
5 shares @ 91.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.63
$0.07
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
5 shares @ 84.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.47
$0.27
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?
5 shares @ 87.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.47
$0.13
- NO
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
5 shares @ 86.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$4.25
$-0.05
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 75.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$3.77
$0.02
- NO
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?
5 shares @ 58.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.67
$-0.23
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
5 shares @ 27.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.47
$0.12
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
5 shares @ 30.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$1.47
$-0.03
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 14?$2.86Jul 14, 12:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 13?$1.05Jul 14, 08:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 13?$2.78Jul 14, 08:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on July 13?$4.21Jul 14, 05:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 13?$3.00Jul 14, 04:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 13?$5.00Jul 14, 03:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 13?$3.65Jul 14, 03:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 13?$2.63Jul 14, 03:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 13?$3.00Jul 14, 02:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?$2.17Jul 14, 02:22 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.61Jul 14, 00:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 13?$4.99Jul 13, 23:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 13?$2.22Jul 13, 23:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 13?$4.35Jul 13, 23:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 13?$5.00Jul 13, 23:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 13?$5.00Jul 13, 23:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 13?$3.18Jul 13, 23:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 13?$5.00Jul 13, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 13?$3.82Jul 13, 22:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?$5.00Jul 13, 22:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
45% win rate over 88 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
88 closed markets, 45% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 16:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 12:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 88 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.