Traumatic-Bakery
0xac761dd9b3a373cc9031dabaab1ecec546299359
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-204.07
Realised
$51.83
Win rate
73%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
267 shares @ 66.1¢·now 76.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$202.56
$26.32
- NO
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
190 shares @ 60.4¢·now 80.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$152.08
$37.30
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
150 shares @ 93.9¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$149.18
$8.38
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
179 shares @ 61.4¢·now 71.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$127.23
$17.27
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
225 shares @ 45.1¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$122.63
$21.18
- NO
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?
150 shares @ 72.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$105.75
$-2.20
- YES
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?
128 shares @ 68.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$98.38
$11.50
- NO
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30?
112 shares @ 56.4¢·now 84.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$93.71
$30.79
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
100 shares @ 83.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$86.50
$3.50
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
150 shares @ 49.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$80.25
$6.75
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$124.98Jun 23, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?$1.75Jun 23, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?$3.60Jun 23, 15:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$17.00Jun 23, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$14.28Jun 23, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?$3.50Jun 23, 14:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?$14.61Jun 23, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?$2.40Jun 23, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?$5.85Jun 23, 14:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$10.92Jun 23, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$12.48Jun 23, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$11.07Jun 23, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?$6.75Jun 23, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$35.49Jun 23, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?$41.84Jun 23, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?$27.64Jun 23, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?$59.25Jun 23, 13:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?$7.56Jun 23, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?$8.50Jun 23, 13:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$52.00Jun 23, 13:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $16.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 17:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 16:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.