Wiry-Thief
0xac89b4935b801f2d3db0dc83f924581a7b4b7096
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$1.28
Total PnL
$-213.08
Realised
$-95.92
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- YES
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
76 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.42
$0.11
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?
51 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$0.28
$-0.13
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?
51 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$0.23
$-0.03
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?
51 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$0.23
$-0.13
- YES
Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
51 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.13
$-0.77
- YES
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
1300 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.30
- YES
Will FW win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
1300 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.30
- YES
Will BSW win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
1300 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.30
- YES
Will Linke win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
1300 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.30
- YES
Will FDP win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
1300 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $60 on April 8?$1.00Apr 8, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $65 on April 8?$1.00Apr 8, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $105 on April 8?$1.00Apr 8, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,900 on April 8?$1.00Apr 8, 13:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Thierry Mariani win the Paris mayor election?$0.00Mar 21, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?$0.51Mar 20, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?$0.25Mar 20, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?$0.35Mar 20, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?$0.20Mar 20, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?$0.59Mar 20, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?$0.40Mar 20, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?$0.22Mar 20, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?$0.15Mar 20, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?$0.40Mar 20, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?$0.61Mar 20, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?$0.90Mar 20, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?$1.01Mar 20, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$0.30Mar 20, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nicole Lee Ethington be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$1.01Mar 20, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Thierry Mariani win the Paris mayor election?$1.01Mar 20, 15:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $0.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 18, 01:35 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 8, 13:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.