Wallet digest

whale

Activity score

97/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

105

Open notional

$70.1K

Total PnL

$-6.0K

Realised

$14.1K

Win rate

79%

19 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 105

NO
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch?
13886 shares @ 70.5¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$9.0K
$-841.12
YES
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?
11529 shares @ 40.9¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$7.4K
$2.7K
YES
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
11688 shares @ 29.8¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$6.1K
$2.7K
YES
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch?
13732 shares @ 25.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$4.9K
$1.5K
YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
101252 shares @ 3.2¢·now 4.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$4.9K
$1.6K
YES
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
4776 shares @ 74.6¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$3.8K
$233.01
YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
11521 shares @ 46.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026
$3.6K
$-1.7K
NO
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?
7920 shares @ 28.7¢·now 45.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$3.6K
$1.3K
YES
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?
4472 shares @ 57.1¢·now 73.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$3.3K
$712.27
NO
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?
5257 shares @ 51.9¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$3.1K
$400.10

Recent activity

TRADESELLWill Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$58.96Jul 28, 16:29 UTC
TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?$1.4KJul 28, 16:04 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$4.66Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
YIELD$0.43Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$1.3KJul 27, 18:55 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$1.92Jul 27, 18:53 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$1.92Jul 27, 18:52 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$1.66Jul 27, 18:45 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$8.94Jul 27, 00:45 UTC
YIELD$0.44Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?$810.00Jul 27, 00:03 UTC
TRADESELLBase FDV above $2B one day after launch?$1.1KJul 26, 04:56 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$1.30Jul 26, 00:45 UTC
YIELD$0.45Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
REWARD$2.18Jul 26, 00:00 UTC
TRADESELLWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.35Jul 25, 17:01 UTC
TRADESELLWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.84Jul 25, 16:55 UTC
TRADESELLWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.31Jul 25, 16:40 UTC
TRADESELLWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.25Jul 25, 16:33 UTC
TRADESELLWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.35Jul 25, 16:25 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

40/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

79% win rate over 19 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity71 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence63 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry37 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk49 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 42
Avg trade size: $93.19
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 25, 03:32 UTC
Last active: Jul 28, 16:29 UTC
Win rate sample: 19 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 18:08:46 UTC·src:Polymarket Data