Ugly-Element-Path
0xace0a40e94a4d58d6c9381c316e40f38e4bd9c90
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-393.09
Realised
$75.73
Win rate
97%
61 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 21?
100 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-6.66
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 11?
100 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 13?
100 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-3.64
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 11?
86 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 8?
83 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-3.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 13?
78 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.93
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 10?
75 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 14?
73 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.19
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 29?
70 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 27?
70 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 24?$0.14Aug 23, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 24?$2.31Aug 23, 01:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 23?$1.08Aug 23, 01:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 23?$0.82Aug 23, 01:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 24?$0.18Aug 23, 01:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on August 23?$1.38Aug 23, 01:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 24?$0.31Aug 23, 01:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 24?$1.99Aug 23, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on August 23?$0.05Aug 23, 01:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on August 23?$0.79Aug 23, 01:17 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.54Aug 23, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 23?$0.52Aug 23, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 23?$0.43Aug 23, 00:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 23?$0.43Aug 23, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 23?$0.40Aug 23, 00:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on August 23?$1.05Aug 23, 00:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on August 23?$0.05Aug 23, 00:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on August 23?$0.44Aug 23, 00:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on August 23?$0.33Aug 23, 00:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 23?$0.13Aug 23, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
97% win rate over 61 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 22/100.
61 closed markets, 97% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $0.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 22, 22:50 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 23, 01:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 61 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.