Wallet profile

Occasional-Fill

0xacf6aae95281c9a96cff3b1d6657cc66a83f41fc

activity 38/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

38/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-131.0K

Realised

$-2.5K

Win rate

23%

26 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

Recent activity

  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.73Jul 9, 00:48 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.35Jul 8, 00:55 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$20.09Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$6.93Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.34Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$7.75Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$4.72Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.20Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$4.01Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.34Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.68Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$6.59Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$3.83Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.88Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$3.56Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
  • MAKER_REBATE$3.32Jun 24, 00:45 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$7.08Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
  • REDEEMDota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner$419.82Jun 23, 12:29 UTC
  • TRADEBUYDota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner$110.47Jun 23, 09:50 UTC
  • TRADEBUYDota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner$4.95Jun 23, 09:50 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

57/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

23% win rate over 26 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
pass

24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.

Resolved-only track record
review

26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity65 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence87 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry69 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk36 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
24
Avg trade size
$109.32
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jun 16, 13:42 UTC
Last active
Jul 9, 00:48 UTC
Win rate sample
26 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 02:14:16 UTC·src:Polymarket Data