Determined-Refuge
0xacfe5bbc96fb4976ecc4693997c063c332bfc247
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
38
Open notional
$71.70
Total PnL
$-357.89
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- YES
Will "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" be in the headlines this week?
22 shares @ 90.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$17.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will "Red" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?
16 shares @ 73.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$13.49
$2.17
- YES
Will "Stock Market" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
36 shares @ 28.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$11.96
$1.96
- YES
Will "Mexico" be in the headlines this week?
22 shares @ 90.0¢·now 53.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$11.78
$-8.22
- YES
Will "Border" be in the headlines this week?
22 shares @ 90.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$11.22
$-8.78
- YES
Will Trump post "Gold" or "Golden" on Truth Social this week?
6 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$6.25
$1.00
- YES
Will "Cancer" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
497 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-54.68
- YES
Will "Spy" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 20?
333 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
210 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-8.49
- YES
Will "Spy" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 6?
175 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-5.24
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" be in the headlines this week?$20.00Jul 30, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Red" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?$11.32Jul 29, 19:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill "People" be said 150+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$18.86Jul 28, 19:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Red" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$14.08Jul 28, 19:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Blue" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$14.08Jul 28, 19:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$11.90Jul 28, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Tesla" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$10.00Jul 28, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Stock Market" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$7.62Jul 28, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Stock Market" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$2.38Jul 28, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Border" be in the headlines this week?$20.00Jul 28, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Mexico" be in the headlines this week?$20.00Jul 28, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump post "Gold" or "Golden" on Truth Social this week?$5.28Jul 27, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$10.00Jul 26, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "People" be said 150+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$10.00Jul 26, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Blue" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$10.00Jul 25, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Red" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$10.00Jul 25, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Trump" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$0.18Jul 25, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Trump" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$6.90Jul 25, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Trump" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$2.92Jul 25, 19:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Blue" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$12.82Jul 25, 02:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $8.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 16:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 02:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.