0xad1a2227f5e0d194cb199211b6c75470b2090a41
0xad1a2227f5e0d194cb199211b6c75470b2090a41
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$0.13
Total PnL
$-11.74
Realised
$0.70
Win rate
88%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
34 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.13
$-0.87
- YES
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?
80 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?
32 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.49
- YOUNES LAAROUSSI
Grand Prix Hassan II, Qualification: Younes Laaroussi vs Moez Echargui
25 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- NO
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?
25 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- YES
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.10 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- EKATERINE GORGODZE
Credit One Charleston Open, Qualification: Donna Vekic vs Ekaterine Gorgodze
14 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- YES
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Milena Moreira win Big Brother Brasil 26?$1.10Apr 1, 10:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Milena Moreira win Big Brother Brasil 26?$1.25Apr 1, 07:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?$1.24Apr 1, 05:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.09Mar 31, 21:07 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?$1.26Mar 31, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?$1.41Mar 31, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?$1.39Mar 31, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?$1.39Mar 31, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.46Mar 31, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?$1.49Mar 31, 04:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?$1.18Mar 31, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?$1.54Mar 30, 23:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?$1.15Mar 30, 21:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the April Meeting?$1.20Mar 30, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?$1.41Mar 30, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the April Meeting?$1.40Mar 30, 15:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?$1.57Mar 30, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?$1.01Mar 30, 08:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.01Mar 29, 22:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?$1.01Mar 29, 21:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 29, 09:38 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 1, 10:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.