Impeccable-Toilet-Milestone
0xad2d7e54d797a1f5577e7c3d0227f005c3066d8d
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$127.16
Total PnL
$-49.32
Realised
$0.81
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
80 shares @ 87.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$69.20
$-0.40
- NO
Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 140m by August 31?
100 shares @ 64.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$52.50
$-11.50
- YES
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 14.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.94
$-0.11
- NO
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 18, 2026?
95 shares @ 7.0¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$1.62
$-5.02
- NO
Will Bank of America say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 5+ times during earnings call?
20 shares @ 6.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.90
$-0.30
- NO
Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
200 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.60
- NO
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of July 13 2026?
80 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-25.60
- NO
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 Week of July 13 2026?
20 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.60
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?$0.80Jul 14, 07:29 UTC
- TRADESELLUS charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?$7.00Jul 14, 06:56 UTC
- TRADESELLUS charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?$3.15Jul 14, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?$14.00Jul 14, 04:50 UTC
- REWARD$9.58Jul 14, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$84.00Jul 13, 23:14 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?$11.33Jul 13, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?$11.33Jul 13, 15:12 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?$12.88Jul 13, 15:06 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?$1.12Jul 13, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 140m by August 31?$64.00Jul 13, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?$43.50Jul 13, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?$26.10Jul 13, 11:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$14.00Jul 13, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$0.35Jul 13, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$0.80Jul 13, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$0.45Jul 13, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of July 13 2026?$6.20Jul 13, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of July 13 2026?$6.20Jul 13, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bank of America say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 5+ times during earnings call?$1.20Jul 13, 01:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $16.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 09:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 07:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.