0xad2de7ec86d769e03c5f981cdd952b82a473448f
0xad2de7ec86d769e03c5f981cdd952b82a473448f
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$37.44
Total PnL
$-108.69
Realised
$-48.44
Win rate
11%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
24 shares @ 78.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.85
$2.47
- NO
Will XRP dip to $0.60 by December 31, 2026?
23 shares @ 69.8¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$16.59
$0.62
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
144 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-11.48
- UP
XRP Up or Down - April 29, 9AM ET
129 shares @ 7.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-9.34
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 9AM ET
65 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-4.85
- UP
XRP Up or Down - April 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
45 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-0.89
- NO
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
36 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-7.82
- UP
XRP Up or Down - April 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
33 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.69
- UP
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
32 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-3.52
- UP
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
30 shares @ 30.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-8.98
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$6.02Jul 28, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP dip to $0.60 by December 31, 2026?$7.92Jul 28, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP dip to $0.60 by December 31, 2026?$8.05Jul 28, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$7.96Jul 25, 16:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$4.85Jul 23, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$1.31Jul 23, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$6.70Jul 23, 15:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?$11.59Jul 23, 12:40 UTC
- TRADESELLSan Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves$8.04Jul 23, 01:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves$0.12Jul 23, 01:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves$7.80Jul 23, 01:02 UTC
- TRADESELLLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies$5.36Jul 22, 22:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies$7.92Jul 22, 22:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$5.25Jul 22, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$3.55Jul 22, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$4.45Jul 22, 13:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$8.76Jul 22, 13:05 UTC
- TRADESELLT20 Lanka Premier League: Jaffna Kings vs Colombo Kaps$10.54Jul 22, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$8.01Jul 22, 10:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill XRP reach $1.20 in July?$11.54Jul 22, 07:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $7.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 30, 17:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 15:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.