Quiet-Uncertainty
0xad42a8d716b3cf8027a0239a4ba4abec0b941a79
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
152
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$-335.43
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 152- NO
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
5355 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-645.07
- NO
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
4450 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-8.90
- NO
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
2609 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-24.34
- NO
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 5-11?
2343 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2025$0.00
$-58.55
- YES
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025?
1498 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-101.96
- YES
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
1349 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 26, 2025$0.00
$-43.19
- YES
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?
802 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-41.11
- NO
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 29-August 4?
771 shares @ 12.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2025$0.00
$-99.63
- NO
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?
507 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-35.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?$33.84Feb 21, 02:16 UTC
- TRADESELLSupreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?$91.29Feb 20, 01:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?$0.03Feb 19, 07:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Femke Kok (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?$11.45Feb 19, 01:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?$5.01Feb 18, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYSupreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?$45.94Feb 18, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?$4.86Feb 18, 03:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYSupreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?$15.00Feb 18, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 25?$10.01Feb 17, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 25?$10.42Feb 17, 23:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYSupreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?$34.00Feb 17, 23:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$20.52Feb 17, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$20.76Feb 17, 22:29 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$1.21Feb 17, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$1.00Feb 17, 22:26 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down on February 17?$7.99Feb 17, 16:34 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down on February 17?$14.52Feb 17, 16:33 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down on February 17?$25.07Feb 17, 16:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?$4.55Feb 17, 15:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the United States of America win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice Hockey at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?$1.82Feb 17, 15:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $11.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 14, 08:22 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 21, 02:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.