Glass-Cupcake
0xad5057e6947081649c263a538d58899117e63122
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$457.78
Total PnL
$-3.1K
Realised
$276.30
Win rate
49%
37 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 29?
241 shares @ 31.3¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$119.30
$43.83
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 29?
236 shares @ 31.8¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$90.86
$15.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 29?
185 shares @ 30.2¢·now 40.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$74.92
$19.13
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 30?
164 shares @ 35.4¢·now 39.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$63.96
$5.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 30?
149 shares @ 27.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$41.06
$0.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 29?
172 shares @ 19.9¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$40.42
$6.18
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?
276 shares @ 3.7¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$12.42
$2.30
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 29?
500 shares @ 1.6¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$10.70
$2.70
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on July 29?
735 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.31
$-0.29
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 28?
1092 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.55
$-0.55
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on July 29?$0.02Jul 28, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?$0.04Jul 28, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?$0.08Jul 28, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?$0.20Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?$0.02Jul 28, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?$0.08Jul 28, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on July 29?$0.49Jul 28, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?$4.40Jul 28, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?$0.14Jul 28, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?$2.70Jul 28, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?$0.16Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?$2.50Jul 28, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on July 29?$3.12Jul 28, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 29?$8.87Jul 28, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 29?$33.09Jul 28, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 29?$23.21Jul 28, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on July 29?$0.01Jul 28, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on July 29?$0.02Jul 28, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on July 29?$0.02Jul 28, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on July 29?$0.02Jul 28, 11:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
49% win rate over 37 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
37 closed markets, 49% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $12.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 07:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 37 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.