Private-Oven
0xad5a38a6549b4b1e35b8c4cfef1b5242088de224
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
55
Open notional
$344.90
Total PnL
$-21.94
Realised
$-8.96
Win rate
44%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- YES
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June?
35 shares @ 60.0¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$34.39
$13.39
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
15 shares @ 95.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$15.16
$0.65
- NO
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?
15 shares @ 95.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$14.96
$0.71
- NO
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
15 shares @ 92.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$14.78
$0.98
- NO
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?
15 shares @ 93.0¢·now 95.2¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$14.28
$0.33
- NO
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 93.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.88
$-0.07
- NO
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?
15 shares @ 92.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$13.72
$-0.07
- NO
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 81.7¢·now 91.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.65
$1.40
- NO
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
15 shares @ 90.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.57
$0.07
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
16 shares @ 81.7¢·now 81.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$13.12
$-0.03
Recent activity
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$10.92Jun 23, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026?$0.88Jun 23, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Women's Sports" this week?$3.95Jun 23, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before GTA VI?$2.45Jun 23, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before GTA VI?$2.45Jun 23, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before GTA VI?$2.45Jun 23, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026?$0.32Jun 23, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iowa" during Pennsylvania events?$1.92Jun 23, 02:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Air Force" this week?$3.75Jun 23, 02:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump praise Mark Rutte by June 30?$3.60Jun 22, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026?$1.20Jun 22, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026?$1.20Jun 22, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026?$1.20Jun 22, 18:22 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by August 31, 2026?$15.00Jun 22, 13:34 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by July 31, 2026?$15.00Jun 22, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.33Jun 22, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.29Jun 22, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$1.00Jun 22, 12:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran close its airspace by June 30?$0.00Jun 22, 09:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $2.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 22:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 15:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.