0xad71afb8075f83fb4c2993f9aee060a8e6e3c921
0xad71afb8075f83fb4c2993f9aee060a8e6e3c921
Wallet digest
Activity score
33/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$1.00
Total PnL
$-107.37
Realised
$-53.99
Win rate
3%
37 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 30?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 23?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 16?
1100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 28?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 27?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on April 12?
922 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 23?
667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 24?
305 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on April 12?
262 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 25?
102 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$0.00Jul 21, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$6.32Jul 21, 05:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$0.00Jul 21, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$6.35Jul 21, 03:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$12.65Jul 20, 23:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$6.22Jul 20, 23:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$9.84Jul 20, 07:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$6.16Jul 20, 07:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$5.22Jul 18, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$3.73Jul 18, 13:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$0.00Jul 18, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$6.17Jul 18, 03:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$9.84Jul 17, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$6.16Jul 17, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$0.00Jul 17, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$6.22Jul 17, 20:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$0.00Jul 17, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET$6.20Jul 17, 06:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$15.00Jul 16, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$6.25Jul 16, 16:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 37 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
37 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $4.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 18:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 05:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 37 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.