Intrepid-Hunger
0xad7dc362269f1fe5fe822d9f1982ad6093d0f545
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
61
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$-95.13
Win rate
46%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 61- YES
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23?
20400 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-41.35
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 7AM ET
8201 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 17, 2025$0.00
$-26.53
- NO
Will anyone say "Fuck" or "Fucking" 3+ times during South Park e6 s27?
5055 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 15, 2025$0.00
$-5.05
- YES
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?
2529 shares @ 21.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-540.98
- YES
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 9?
1501 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2025$0.00
$-93.12
- NO
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 20?
1353 shares @ 11.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-161.33
- YES
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?
1100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-2.20
- NO
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?
791 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-51.83
- YES
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?
772 shares @ 11.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 24, 2025$0.00
$-86.57
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 10PM ET
721 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 18, 2025$0.00
$-11.42
Recent activity
- TRADESELLJeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?$4.84Jul 12, 08:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?$3.70Jul 12, 08:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?$7.24Jul 12, 08:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$10.00Jul 12, 08:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?$10.00Jul 12, 08:26 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$10.32Jul 12, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?$2.08Mar 13, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?$2.45Mar 13, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$4.45Mar 13, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?$7.60Mar 13, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?$6.43Mar 13, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$4.45Mar 13, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$3.17Mar 13, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?$3.92Mar 13, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYJeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?$4.38Mar 13, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?$1.00Mar 13, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$5.88Mar 13, 02:43 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - October 19, 4AM ET$0.00Mar 13, 02:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?$1.30Mar 13, 02:41 UTC
- REDEEMUS forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?$9.00Mar 13, 02:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $6.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 28, 18:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 08:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.