Polite-Spork
0xad8b4a81827214681402ca785687647985080370
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
96
Open notional
$181.38
Total PnL
$-951.83
Realised
$-30.13
Win rate
0%
85 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 96- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 12?
94 shares @ 45.6¢·now 51.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$47.94
$5.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 12?
97 shares @ 45.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$35.41
$-8.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 12?
45 shares @ 65.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$31.27
$2.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 13?
33 shares @ 59.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$25.41
$5.94
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 13?
47 shares @ 41.7¢·now 45.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$21.39
$1.78
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 12?
24 shares @ 60.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$15.72
$1.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on August 13?
29 shares @ 32.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$4.24
$-5.12
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 11?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
500 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 11?
120 shares @ 35.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.00
$-42.98
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 12?$15.15Aug 12, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 12?$14.65Aug 12, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 12?$14.98Aug 12, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on August 13?$9.36Aug 12, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 13?$10.24Aug 12, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 12?$14.72Aug 12, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 12?$14.65Aug 12, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 12?$14.76Aug 12, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 13?$9.92Aug 12, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 12?$14.97Aug 12, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 12?$14.80Aug 12, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 12?$14.69Aug 12, 08:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 11?$70.64Aug 12, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 11?$19.99Aug 11, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on August 12?$19.32Aug 11, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 11?$30.80Aug 11, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 11?$14.37Aug 11, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 11?$29.67Aug 11, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 11?$5.60Aug 11, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 11?$17.70Aug 11, 14:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
62/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 85 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
85 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $11.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 16:07 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 10:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 85 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.