0xad8b7585b6a40b8a5761b75bf2ff2847cf52c107
0xad8b7585b6a40b8a5761b75bf2ff2847cf52c107
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$18.64
Total PnL
$-36.83
Realised
$-16.96
Win rate
30%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 30?
7 shares @ 68.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$6.50
$2.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 30?
6 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$6.18
$1.42
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 29?
6 shares @ 76.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$5.95
$1.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 30?
41 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on March 31?
41 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 29?
31 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 30?
26 shares @ 15.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.08
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 29?
25 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-3.25
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 29?
6 shares @ 40.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-2.63
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on March 30?
6 shares @ 71.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.28
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 31, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$3.00Apr 1, 02:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$0.00Apr 1, 01:53 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 31, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$0.00Apr 1, 01:52 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$0.00Apr 1, 01:52 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 31, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$0.00Apr 1, 01:52 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 31, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET$0.00Apr 1, 01:52 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 31, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$0.00Apr 1, 01:52 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 31, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$0.00Apr 1, 01:52 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - March 31, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$0.00Apr 1, 01:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$0.00Apr 1, 01:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 29?$0.00Apr 1, 01:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on March 30?$0.00Apr 1, 01:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 30?$0.00Apr 1, 01:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 29?$0.00Apr 1, 01:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 30?$0.00Apr 1, 01:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 29?$0.00Apr 1, 01:51 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 31, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$5.00Apr 1, 01:51 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 31, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET$0.00Apr 1, 01:51 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 31, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$0.00Apr 1, 01:51 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 31, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET$0.00Apr 1, 01:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
14 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $2.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 30, 23:04 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 1, 02:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.