Wallet digest

active

Activity score

32/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

125

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.8K

Realised

$-768.14

Win rate

59 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 125

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET
1870 shares @ 13.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026
$0.00
$-253.15
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3AM ET
928 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026
$0.00
$-0.93
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET
796 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026
$0.00
$-18.59
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8PM ET
210 shares @ 28.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026
$0.00
$-60.35
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7AM ET
210 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026
$0.00
$-27.40
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6AM ET
105 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026
$0.00
$-27.30
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9PM ET
105 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026
$0.00
$-27.29
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8AM ET
105 shares @ 65.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026
$0.00
$-69.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
93 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026
$0.00
$-0.93
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET
76 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026
$0.00
$-5.60

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET$2.00Jul 4, 04:20 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$5.00Jul 2, 00:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$2.00Jul 2, 00:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$0.54Jul 2, 00:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$1.46Jul 2, 00:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$2.00Jul 2, 00:20 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$5.00Jul 2, 00:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$2.00Jul 2, 00:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$1.92Jul 2, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$0.08Jul 2, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$1.83Jul 1, 00:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$2.00Jul 1, 00:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$2.00Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$2.00Jul 1, 00:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$2.00Jul 1, 00:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$0.20Jun 30, 14:37 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$10.00Jun 30, 14:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$1.86Jun 30, 14:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$0.67Jun 30, 14:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$0.80Jun 30, 14:31 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

64/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

5% win rate over 59 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

59 closed markets, 5% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity40 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry68 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk24 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 39
Avg trade size: $2.55
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 29, 00:30 UTC
Last active: Jul 4, 04:20 UTC
Win rate sample: 59 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 09:22:35 UTC·src:Polymarket Data