Dear-Pumpernickel
0xadac4ed60244b2ef77241b361806683d55131e69
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$7.28
Total PnL
$-3.63
Realised
$0.44
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $550 Week of July 27 2026?
5 shares @ 37.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.08
$0.08
- YES
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $348 Week of July 27 2026?
4 shares @ 50.0¢·now 52.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.07
$0.08
- NO
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $320 end of July?
2 shares @ 52.6¢·now 78.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.50
$0.50
- YES
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 in July?
2 shares @ 66.0¢·now 56.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.85
$-0.15
- YES
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $360 in July?
3 shares @ 31.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.44
$-0.56
- YES
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $330 in July?
15 shares @ 6.7¢·now 1.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.17
$-0.83
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July?
2 shares @ 28.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.17
$-0.28
- NO
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on July 24?
213 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on July 24?
3 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-0.90
- DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July?$0.01Jul 28, 15:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July?$0.00Jul 28, 15:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July?$0.01Jul 28, 15:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July?$0.00Jul 28, 15:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $348 Week of July 27 2026?$0.00Jul 28, 14:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $348 Week of July 27 2026?$0.00Jul 28, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $348 Week of July 27 2026?$1.02Jul 28, 14:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $348 Week of July 27 2026?$1.02Jul 28, 14:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $550 Week of July 27 2026?$1.03Jul 28, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $550 Week of July 27 2026?$1.03Jul 28, 14:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in July?$1.01Jul 28, 12:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July?$0.01Jul 28, 06:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July?$0.00Jul 27, 16:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July?$0.01Jul 27, 16:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 in July?$1.03Jul 27, 14:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 in July?$0.22Jul 27, 14:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in July?$0.05Jul 27, 13:22 UTC
- REDEEMTesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 24?$0.00Jul 25, 14:19 UTC
- REDEEMTesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 24?$0.63Jul 25, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 in July?$1.01Jul 25, 01:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $0.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 15:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 15:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.