Blaring-Gator
0xadb51585c4d71616524a051841a8ad4778584d50
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$99.68
Total PnL
$-14.48
Realised
$1.72
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
20 shares @ 67.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$13.31
$-0.10
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
13 shares @ 74.7¢·now 87.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.54
$1.67
- YES
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
18 shares @ 49.8¢·now 58.2¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$10.56
$1.52
- NO
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
25 shares @ 79.0¢·now 41.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$10.38
$-9.62
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
29 shares @ 27.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.37
$-0.43
- YES
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
44 shares @ 15.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.53
$0.00
- NO
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
17 shares @ 57.2¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.90
$-3.61
- NO
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
6 shares @ 90.9¢·now 95.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.74
$0.28
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
6 shares @ 47.4¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.68
$2.83
- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
6 shares @ 85.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.13
$0.03
Recent activity
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$22.55Jun 20, 02:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYTaiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 gross profit margin 70%+?$5.94Jun 19, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of June 27?$1.33Jun 19, 20:44 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by July 31, 2026?$11.63Jun 19, 17:44 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$5.33Jun 19, 17:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19?$0.00Jun 19, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$3.42Jun 19, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$14.00Jun 19, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19?$2.25Jun 19, 13:55 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.88Jun 19, 13:50 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.74Jun 19, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$5.75Jun 19, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$4.27Jun 19, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$4.67Jun 19, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$6.53Jun 19, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$4.12Jun 19, 13:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?$2.67Jun 19, 11:08 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$11.86Jun 19, 10:25 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$1.62Jun 19, 09:37 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$4.27Jun 19, 09:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $5.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 21:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 02:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.