Real-Fourths-Confidentiality
0xae177ebfaecfa54337b735919a5453ec8ff4e674
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-58.70
Realised
$-2.28
Win rate
0%
38 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 10?
84 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- ZIMBABWE
T20 Series Zimbabwe vs India: Zimbabwe vs India
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 23?
10 shares @ 10.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on July 4?
8 shares @ 36.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29?
7 shares @ 83.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on July 4?
7 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.43
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on August 19?$0.44Aug 19, 12:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 19?$2.48Aug 19, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on August 19?$1.49Aug 19, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 19?$3.01Aug 18, 14:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 16?$4.51Aug 16, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 16?$4.25Aug 15, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$1.04Jul 30, 15:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$1.67Jul 30, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$1.01Jul 30, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$1.01Jul 30, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$1.03Jul 30, 15:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$1.85Jul 30, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$1.03Jul 30, 15:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 29?$2.52Jul 29, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 29?$1.34Jul 29, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 29?$1.03Jul 29, 05:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 28?$2.37Jul 28, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 28?$1.45Jul 28, 05:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 28?$1.04Jul 28, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on July 28?$1.03Jul 27, 11:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
62/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 38 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
38 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $1.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 10:45 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 12:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 38 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.