Sarcastic-Whip
0xae2292210546c627e1ac69948280ff07516e8794
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$488.08
Total PnL
$-8.1K
Realised
$345.32
Win rate
87%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?
159 shares @ 18.8¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$135.92
$106.10
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 28?
95 shares @ 44.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$94.95
$53.15
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 30?
208 shares @ 35.9¢·now 44.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$91.62
$16.86
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 28?
56 shares @ 71.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$55.59
$15.67
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 28?
40 shares @ 43.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$39.98
$22.58
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 28?
30 shares @ 53.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$29.98
$13.88
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 29?
209 shares @ 51.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$29.25
$-77.29
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 29?
105 shares @ 42.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$5.80
$-38.47
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 30?
41 shares @ 4.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$4.90
$3.26
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 28?
100 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.05
$-15.95
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 28?$103.14Jul 28, 23:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?$31.03Jul 28, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 29?$45.55Jul 28, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 29?$24.56Jul 28, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 29?$32.34Jul 28, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 29?$26.12Jul 28, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 29?$26.12Jul 28, 21:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 28?$0.95Jul 28, 20:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 28?$1.26Jul 28, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 28?$5.76Jul 28, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 28?$8.12Jul 28, 19:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 28?$16.44Jul 28, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 28?$6.57Jul 28, 18:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 29?$10.98Jul 28, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 29?$17.06Jul 28, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 28?$40.49Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 28?$6.14Jul 28, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 28?$4.92Jul 28, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 28?$16.47Jul 28, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 28?$9.05Jul 28, 17:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
87% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $16.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 04:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 23:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.