Damaged-Tattoo
0xae31a9d61abd64f4fc0cdafa1d7d7f4369ae3ea1
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.9K
Realised
$-1.6K
Win rate
70%
106 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 26?
1600 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-49.60
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
1229 shares @ 27.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-332.77
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
1000 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-22.22
- YES
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 18?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 18?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 12-18?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?$10.00Aug 14, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$1.00Aug 10, 05:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$1.00Aug 10, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$1.00Aug 10, 05:23 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET$20.00Aug 10, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET$1.00Aug 10, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET$1.00Aug 10, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET$1.00Aug 10, 05:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET$1.00Aug 10, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET$0.09Aug 10, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET$0.91Aug 10, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$1.00Aug 10, 03:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$1.00Aug 10, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$1.00Aug 10, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET$1.00Aug 10, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET$0.81Aug 10, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET$0.19Aug 10, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET$1.00Aug 10, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET$1.00Aug 10, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$1.00Aug 10, 02:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
70% win rate over 106 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 22/100.
106 closed markets, 70% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $0.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 10, 00:08 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 11:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 106 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.