Several-Holiday
0xae3784366c22f57332bb8d5aa61984e900c04888
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-33.5K
Realised
$1.7K
Win rate
85%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
10000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
3621 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-67.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET
3442 shares @ 9.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-324.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
2899 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-114.30
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET
2335 shares @ 26.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-617.81
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET
2306 shares @ 29.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-682.98
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET
1849 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET
1754 shares @ 27.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-477.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET
1735 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-346.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 5AM ET
1416 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-109.21
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$193.53Aug 7, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.06Aug 7, 01:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.03Aug 7, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.03Aug 7, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$25.79Aug 7, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.04Aug 7, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.06Aug 7, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.06Aug 7, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.06Aug 7, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.06Aug 7, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.06Aug 7, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.06Aug 7, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.06Aug 7, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.06Aug 7, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.06Aug 7, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.05Aug 7, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$1.05Aug 7, 01:42 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$14.82Aug 7, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$25.47Aug 7, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$25.52Aug 7, 01:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
85% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $8.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 6, 21:00 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 01:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.