Wallet digest

active

Activity score

32/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-3.3K

Realised

$-1.1K

Win rate

18 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 18

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET
1000 shares @ 56.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-565.78
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
744 shares @ 51.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-385.58
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
411 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026
$0.00
$-246.49
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
273 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-139.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET
220 shares @ 54.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-120.37
HOUSTON ASTROS
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
211 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-120.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
187 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-97.00
ZAAR
Set 1 Winner: Kulambayeva vs Zaar
175 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET
163 shares @ 58.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-95.00

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$2.20Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$582.97Jul 15, 10:25 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$582.31Jul 15, 10:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$352.47Jul 15, 10:15 UTC
TRADESELLITF Uriage: Arthur Bonnaud vs Tristan Berard$347.57Jul 15, 09:48 UTC
TRADEBUYITF Uriage: Arthur Bonnaud vs Tristan Berard$1.5KJul 15, 07:53 UTC
TRADEBUYSet 1 Winner: Kulambayeva vs Zaar$102.15Jul 12, 08:09 UTC
TRADESELLSet 1 Winner: Kulambayeva vs Zaar$201.35Jul 12, 08:04 UTC
TRADEBUYSet 1 Winner: Kulambayeva vs Zaar$153.07Jul 12, 07:58 UTC
TRADESELLSet 1 Winner: Kulambayeva vs Zaar$147.51Jul 12, 07:47 UTC
TRADEBUYSet 1 Winner: Kulambayeva vs Zaar$97.04Jul 12, 07:31 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.48Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
TRADESELLMilwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$505.87Jul 11, 21:05 UTC
TRADEBUYMilwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$501.02Jul 11, 20:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$97.77Jul 11, 20:31 UTC
TRADESELLSet 1 Winner: Gombos vs Izquierdo$190.28Jul 11, 18:18 UTC
TRADEBUYSet 1 Winner: Gombos vs Izquierdo$102.40Jul 11, 18:13 UTC
TRADESELLCroatia Open, Qualification: Raul Brancaccio vs Federico Agustin Gomez$90.77Jul 11, 18:03 UTC
TRADESELLWimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskova$4.14Jul 11, 17:31 UTC
TRADESELLWimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskova$406.73Jul 11, 17:29 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

47/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

6% win rate over 18 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity40 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence60 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry89 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk49 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 40
Avg trade size: $214.56
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 5, 10:55 UTC
Last active: Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
Win rate sample: 18 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 08:43:39 UTC·src:Polymarket Data