Crisp-Quarter
0xae473e3ccaf9e03b6b0a94f4d5cb7bbd5a9baebe
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
132
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-399.86
Realised
$16.46
Win rate
89%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 132- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July?
1127 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-4.72
- YES
Bitcoin above $120,000 on July 23?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July?
385 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-19.92
- YES
Will Solana reach $250 in July?
157 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-16.75
- CEJUDO
UFC 323: Cejudo vs. Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card)
131 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-11.12
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?
130 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.86
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July?
130 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-2.67
- YES
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?
122 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Pump.fun reach $0.007 before August?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Dogecoin reach $0.29 in July?
70 shares @ 21.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-15.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card)$5.17Jul 17, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Dione Barbosa vs. Anna Melisano (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)$3.13Jul 17, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Chase Hooper vs. Mitch Ramirez (Lightweight, Main Card)$5.19Jul 17, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Tabatha Ricci vs. Fatima Kline (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)$10.40Jul 17, 15:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Asplund vs. Sharaf (Heavyweight, Main Card)$4.60Dec 14, 01:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Guilherme Pat win by KO or TKO?$2.64Dec 14, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Green vs. Gibson Jr. (Catchweight, Prelims)$1.00Dec 14, 00:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Chikadze vs. Vallejos (Featherweight, Main Card)$4.00Dec 14, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the fight be won by submission?$2.00Dec 14, 00:34 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 323: Dawson vs. Torres (Lightweight, Prelims)$4.55Dec 8, 01:34 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card)$9.62Dec 8, 01:34 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)$25.48Dec 8, 01:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Joshua Van win by KO or TKO?$30.00Dec 8, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card)$5.00Dec 7, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)$5.86Dec 7, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 323: Cejudo vs. Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card)$6.12Dec 7, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYFight to Go the Distance?$5.00Dec 7, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 323: Cejudo vs. Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card)$5.00Dec 7, 03:44 UTC
- TRADESELLUFC 323: Blachowicz vs. Guskov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)$5.97Dec 7, 03:41 UTC
- TRADESELLUFC 323: Blachowicz vs. Guskov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)$21.00Dec 7, 03:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $4.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 6, 19:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 16:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.