Pastel-Segment
0xae6546fd301e21c21e4b875e3b35d734a0f03a3d
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$64.35
Total PnL
$2.3K
Realised
$2.6K
Win rate
45%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
60 shares @ 85.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$60.35
$8.62
- NO
Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31?
4 shares @ 80.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$4.00
$0.77
- NO
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?
300 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 15, 2025$0.00
$-153.00
- YES
Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31?
174 shares @ 20.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-36.12
- YES
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
104 shares @ 54.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-56.10
- YES
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026
82 shares @ 57.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-47.38
- YES
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11?
50 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Google Gemini Parlay
38 shares @ 18.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-7.06
- NO
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?
35 shares @ 90.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2025$0.00
$-31.63
- NO
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
33 shares @ 18.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-6.25
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Polymarket mindshare hit 80%?$1.39Feb 24, 20:23 UTC
- MERGEWill Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026$33.00Feb 17, 12:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?$0.45Feb 11, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?$14.99Feb 11, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMTesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?$7.72Jan 29, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026$9.35Jan 18, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026$0.65Jan 18, 01:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m?$0.11Jan 12, 15:40 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?$0.64Jan 12, 15:39 UTC
- REDEEMOver $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?$0.00Jan 12, 14:19 UTC
- MERGEWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?$71.24Jan 12, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026$13.68Jan 12, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026$13.92Jan 12, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?$53.43Jan 11, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?$1.20Jan 11, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?$1.25Jan 11, 20:36 UTC
- MERGEWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?$20.00Jan 11, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?$7.50Jan 11, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?$7.60Jan 11, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?$6.24Jan 11, 19:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
45% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $6.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 11, 13:34 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 24, 20:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.