Sturdy-Jewel
0xae7d014f94535f8ac0e954b56a1897843000058f
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
34
Open notional
$401.09
Total PnL
$-83.75
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- YES
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027?
50 shares @ 97.3¢·now 90.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$45.32
$-3.33
- YES
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.0B?
50 shares @ 92.3¢·now 89.6¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$44.82
$-1.33
- YES
Will Wes Streeting be in the Burnham cabinet?
50 shares @ 93.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$44.00
$-2.50
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-05 House seat?
50 shares @ 87.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$41.25
$-2.25
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the TX-31 House seat?
50 shares @ 85.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$40.74
$-1.75
- NO
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?
50 shares @ 88.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.25
$-3.75
- NO
Will David Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?
50 shares @ 85.7¢·now 75.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.92
$-4.93
- YES
Will Wells Fargo (WFC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.15B?
50 shares @ 78.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$17.24
$-21.76
- YES
Le Pen endorses non-Bardella PM by April 17, 2027?
50 shares @ 32.0¢·now 23.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$11.50
$-4.50
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?
50 shares @ 20.2¢·now 20.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$10.17
$0.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?$3.00Jul 11, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?$10.10Jul 11, 06:43 UTC
- TRADESELLPuffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?$2.27Jul 11, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYPuffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?$2.40Jul 11, 04:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?$26.57Jul 11, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?$28.48Jul 11, 03:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?$10.65Jul 11, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?$10.50Jul 11, 01:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?$1.66Jul 11, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?$1.72Jul 11, 00:55 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.48Jul 11, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYProbable FDV above $50M one day after launch?$7.50Jul 11, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the MD-08 House seat?$3.15Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Stavky by July 31?$3.00Jul 11, 00:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Stavky by July 31?$3.00Jul 11, 00:06 UTC
- REWARD$37.87Jul 11, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?$8.00Jul 10, 23:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 Week of July 6 2026?$0.00Jul 10, 23:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.8% and 3.0%?$1.12Jul 10, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.8% and 3.0%?$1.17Jul 10, 23:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $4.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 13:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 06:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.