Spherical-Poppy
0xae8f39981cdf14c2087dd14f7b47c2d3a831c820
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
92
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$19.26
Win rate
41%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 92- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 13?
301 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 8?
127 shares @ 22.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-28.77
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 1?
121 shares @ 34.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-41.79
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on May 1?
118 shares @ 28.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-33.31
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 30?
110 shares @ 28.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-31.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 5?
108 shares @ 43.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-46.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on April 30?
107 shares @ 40.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-43.66
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 6?
106 shares @ 33.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-35.63
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on May 3?
102 shares @ 39.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-39.92
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 6?
102 shares @ 46.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-47.89
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on July 26?$0.37Jul 26, 11:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on July 26?$0.91Jul 26, 11:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on July 26?$0.34Jul 26, 11:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 26?$1.03Jul 26, 11:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 26?$3.05Jul 26, 11:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 26?$3.53Jul 26, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 26?$1.85Jul 26, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 26?$3.70Jul 26, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 26?$16.73Jul 26, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on July 26?$18.49Jul 26, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on July 26?$15.57Jul 26, 04:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 24?$0.00Jul 26, 03:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 24?$0.07Jul 25, 00:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 24?$0.86Jul 24, 22:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 24?$2.20Jul 24, 22:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 24?$0.61Jul 24, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 24?$2.00Jul 24, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 24?$5.32Jul 24, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 24?$4.90Jul 24, 21:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 24?$3.88Jul 24, 21:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
41% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $6.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 18:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 26, 11:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.