Incomplete-Overcharge-Relay
0xae96e0cefa9fabf683705ca113578374865abb33
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$34.40
Total PnL
$7.78
Realised
$3.68
Win rate
90%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will 4–5 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?
5 shares @ 74.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$4.63
$0.92
- NO
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?
5 shares @ 71.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$4.56
$1.32
- NO
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
3 shares @ 83.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$3.33
$0.54
- NO
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
3 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$2.78
$0.47
- UNDER
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc vs. FCSB: O/U 3.5
3 shares @ 75.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$2.74
$0.69
- YES
Will James Harden play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?
3 shares @ 88.8¢·now 98.2¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$2.71
$0.26
- NO
Exact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 2 - 0 CD Limache?
3 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$2.68
$0.29
- NO
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc leading at halftime?
3 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$2.60
$0.60
- NO
Exact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 1 - 0 CD Limache?
3 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$2.58
$0.28
- NO
Will Los Angeles Mad Drops win the Major League Pickleball End of Season Championship?
2 shares @ 92.0¢·now 96.2¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$2.13
$0.09
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill James Harden play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$4.71Jul 27, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill James Harden play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$5.17Jul 26, 06:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?$4.35Jul 25, 09:21 UTC
- TRADESELLFDA approves Outlook Therapeutics' ONS-5010?$6.77Jul 24, 18:58 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 1 - 0 CD Limache?$4.64Jul 24, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?$5.73Jul 24, 02:14 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: CR Flamengo 1 - 1 São Paulo FC?$4.58Jul 23, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?$1.05Jul 23, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?$4.92Jul 23, 08:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Los Angeles Mad Drops win the Major League Pickleball End of Season Championship?$4.93Jul 23, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: CR Flamengo 1 - 1 São Paulo FC?$6.97Jul 23, 06:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Los Angeles Mad Drops win the Major League Pickleball End of Season Championship?$6.99Jul 23, 05:20 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 3 - 0 CD Limache?$7.01Jul 23, 03:53 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 2 - 0 CD Limache?$4.48Jul 23, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?$5.45Jul 22, 18:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$3.15Jul 21, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$3.78Jul 21, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 3 - 0 CD Limache?$6.99Jul 21, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 2 - 0 CD Limache?$6.84Jul 21, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 1 - 0 CD Limache?$6.84Jul 21, 17:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
90% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 22:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 11:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.