Simple-Mantle
0xaebca1f8fd4695bf416cf5d271640a19d71fbbc1
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-285.60
Realised
$2.79
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% before August?
1136 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?
515 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting?
317 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025?
310 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.40
- YES
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be less than 2%?
222 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%?
171 shares @ 11.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Elon no longer world's richest before August?
164 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025?
141 shares @ 14.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?
123 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-18.50
- YES
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2025?
111 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMAny Tesla arsonist found guilty in 2025?$0.00Sep 17, 18:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025?$5.89Aug 7, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by August 31?$5.00Jul 28, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump's approval rating hit 40% before August?$10.00Jul 24, 16:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025?$15.49Jul 24, 16:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025?$22.99Jul 17, 11:18 UTC
- TRADESELLX Money launch in 2025?$23.00Jul 17, 11:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple create a backdoor for user data in iCloud?$0.00Jul 9, 17:11 UTC
- REDEEMPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?$0.00Jul 9, 17:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple create a backdoor for user data in iCloud?$0.00Jul 9, 17:10 UTC
- TRADESELLTesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?$16.92Jul 7, 23:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?$11.72Jun 26, 11:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?$89.46Jun 26, 11:32 UTC
- REDEEMTrump blames Biden for Iran-Israel escalation by Friday?$0.00Jun 22, 15:41 UTC
- REDEEMUS military action against Iran before July?$70.59Jun 22, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYElon no longer world's richest before August?$11.00Jun 20, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYTesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?$10.00Jun 20, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump blames Biden for Iran-Israel escalation by Friday?$10.00Jun 18, 23:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?$38.70Jun 18, 23:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June meeting?$0.00Jun 5, 21:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $18.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 1, 15:34 UTC
- Last active
- Sep 17, 18:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.