Giving-Rest
0xaebd870371f88133e7a2674f22b062f2302fa26f
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$591.42
Total PnL
$-5.9K
Realised
$-266.51
Win rate
13%
158 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1000?
95 shares @ 93.8¢·now 98.1¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$92.86
$4.02
- NO
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?
100 shares @ 87.7¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$91.50
$3.80
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on August 16?
88 shares @ 26.3¢·now 98.9¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$87.02
$63.92
- YES
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1100?
91 shares @ 86.5¢·now 93.6¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$85.42
$6.44
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 16?
80 shares @ 32.5¢·now 39.5¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$31.60
$5.63
- NO
Ledger IPO before 2027?
35 shares @ 87.6¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.88
$0.66
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 16?
30 shares @ 46.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$28.16
$14.52
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 16?
73 shares @ 45.6¢·now 36.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$26.28
$-7.01
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?
25 shares @ 73.6¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$22.13
$3.73
- YES
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
30 shares @ 79.7¢·now 63.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.05
$-4.85
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on August 15?$20.00Aug 16, 02:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 15?$169.99Aug 16, 02:27 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.33Aug 16, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 16?$6.26Aug 16, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 16?$15.02Aug 16, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 16?$16.95Aug 16, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 16?$2.67Aug 15, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 16?$1.73Aug 15, 23:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on August 15?$40.00Aug 15, 23:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 15?$30.00Aug 15, 23:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 15?$14.24Aug 15, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 16?$2.41Aug 15, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 16?$1.92Aug 15, 23:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 16?$1.60Aug 15, 23:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 16?$1.65Aug 15, 23:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 16?$3.78Aug 15, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 16?$2.57Aug 15, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 16?$23.48Aug 15, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 16?$19.10Aug 15, 23:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?$6.59Aug 15, 22:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
13% win rate over 158 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
158 closed markets, 13% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $8.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 15, 15:43 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 02:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 158 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.