Empty-Debtor
0xaedd6c816358bc3bb09508d5c36699610244150c
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
139
Open notional
$11.4K
Total PnL
$-44.12
Realised
$264.81
Win rate
89%
105 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 139- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
200 shares @ 97.9¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$192.50
$-3.30
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
200 shares @ 95.9¢·now 95.9¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$191.70
$-0.10
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
200 shares @ 87.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$175.00
$1.00
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
200 shares @ 95.1¢·now 87.2¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$174.30
$-15.90
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
195 shares @ 89.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$172.57
$-0.97
- NO
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?
200 shares @ 87.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$165.00
$-9.00
- NO
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
150 shares @ 89.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$135.00
$1.50
- NO
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
113 shares @ 96.1¢·now 93.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$106.08
$-2.55
- NO
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
100 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$99.28
$0.05
- NO
Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals?
100 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$99.25
$0.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?$133.50Aug 9, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$191.80Aug 9, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?$26.13Aug 9, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?$9.20Aug 9, 20:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in August?$96.40Aug 9, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP dip to $0.80 in August?$13.44Aug 9, 20:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?$4.92Aug 9, 20:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?$37.29Aug 9, 19:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?$10.56Aug 9, 19:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?$32.93Aug 9, 19:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?$6.21Aug 9, 19:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?$83.66Aug 9, 19:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$98.51Aug 9, 18:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $1,600 in August?$3.06Aug 9, 18:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?$1.30Aug 9, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?$14.06Aug 9, 17:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?$32.34Aug 9, 17:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?$11.16Aug 9, 17:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?$1.89Aug 9, 17:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?$9.30Aug 9, 16:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 105 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
105 closed markets, 89% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $39.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 9, 13:49 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 9, 21:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 105 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.