Ignorant-Karate
0xaef0f71b0377f5f0ac1435d7b242d7b4bc6d491c
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$328.54
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
2121 shares @ 21.2¢·now 10.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$212.14
$-238.45
- YES
Iran leadership change by October 31?
467 shares @ 15.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$53.67
$-16.33
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
850 shares @ 22.8¢·now 4.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$38.67
$-154.82
- YES
Iran leadership change by September 30?
300 shares @ 14.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$22.50
$-19.50
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?
222 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.7¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.55
$-5.31
- NO
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at market close on IPO day?
830 shares @ 10.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-87.30
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
242 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-75.00
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?
181 shares @ 75.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-136.15
- YES
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals
133 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-74.52
- YES
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?
117 shares @ 62.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-73.58
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?$46.20Aug 7, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by October 31?$70.00Aug 7, 20:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $510 Week of August 3 2026?$70.16Aug 7, 20:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $990 Week of August 3 2026?$150.42Aug 7, 20:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $162.50 Week of August 3 2026?$1.10Aug 7, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $162.50 Week of August 3 2026?$8.80Aug 7, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $160 Week of August 3 2026?$97.92Aug 7, 14:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $157.50 Week of August 3 2026?$34.89Aug 7, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $157.50 Week of August 3 2026?$25.96Aug 6, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $160 Week of August 3 2026?$77.47Aug 6, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $162.50 Week of August 3 2026?$8.94Aug 6, 06:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $990 Week of August 3 2026?$140.28Aug 6, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $502.50 Week of August 3 2026?$59.56Aug 6, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $510 Week of August 3 2026?$66.11Aug 6, 06:32 UTC
- TRADESELLSquid FDV above $200M one day after launch$22.25Aug 5, 11:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?$197.02Aug 5, 11:01 UTC
- TRADESELLSquid FDV above $400M one day after launch$25.44Aug 4, 22:07 UTC
- TRADESELLSquid FDV above $400M one day after launch$103.90Aug 4, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYSquid FDV above $200M one day after launch$10.11Aug 4, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYSquid FDV above $200M one day after launch$10.31Aug 4, 13:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $68.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 20:31 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 20:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.