Required-Contractor
0xaf464ba971cbde060b2b72662e1a5bd530e81d91
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$56.97
Total PnL
$-201.93
Realised
$10.04
Win rate
63%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 16?
40 shares @ 18.5¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$33.40
$26.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 16?
11 shares @ 66.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$10.55
$2.98
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 17?
55 shares @ 12.7¢·now 15.2¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$8.33
$1.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 16?
21 shares @ 17.0¢·now 16.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$3.30
$-0.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 17?
10 shares @ 7.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.84
$0.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 16?
10 shares @ 24.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.55
$-1.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27?
337 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-8.89
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 12?
300 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 9?
300 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 12?
184 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.78
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 16?$2.79Jul 16, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 16?$2.88Jul 16, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 16?$3.92Jul 16, 14:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 16?$3.65Jul 16, 14:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 16?$3.50Jul 16, 14:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 16?$0.63Jul 16, 14:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 16?$0.18Jul 16, 14:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 16?$0.86Jul 16, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 16?$0.01Jul 16, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 16?$0.04Jul 16, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 16?$0.07Jul 16, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 16?$0.04Jul 16, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 16?$0.04Jul 16, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 17?$7.28Jul 16, 13:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 16?$11.51Jul 16, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 16?$1.05Jul 16, 13:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 16?$38.09Jul 16, 13:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 16?$1.38Jul 16, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 16?$0.14Jul 16, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 16?$0.15Jul 16, 13:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 10:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 14:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.