Glaring-Apparatus
0xaf4ef2b190037c1a0bd775b6d4390e196a50608a
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$6.31
Total PnL
$-38.33
Realised
$-0.02
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
5 shares @ 95.5¢·now 95.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.21
$0.01
- NO
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 shares @ 97.9¢·now 97.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.10
$-0.01
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 29?
4200 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2025$0.00
$-8.40
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 6?
1085 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-7.59
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on April 15?
1077 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.15
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 13?
1074 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.07
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on May 2?
1070 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.14
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 9?
1066 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-3.20
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 22?
1064 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-3.19
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 18?
1060 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.12
Recent activity
- REWARD$0.12Jun 5, 00:20 UTC
- REWARD$1.56Jun 4, 00:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 2?$1.1KJun 2, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 2?$1.1KJun 2, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 1?$1.1KJun 1, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 1?$1.1KJun 1, 06:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 31?$1.1KJun 1, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 31?$1.1KMay 31, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $70 on May 30?$1.1KMay 30, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $70 on May 30?$1.1KMay 30, 05:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 26?$2.12May 26, 10:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 18?$2.12May 18, 05:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $70 on May 11?$1.1KMay 12, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $70 on May 11?$1.1KMay 12, 02:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 11?$1.1KMay 12, 02:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 11?$1.1KMay 11, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $100 on May 10?$1.1KMay 11, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $100 on May 10?$1.1KMay 10, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 9?$3.20May 9, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUY10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$5.20May 4, 08:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $692.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 9, 05:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 5, 00:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.