Slow-Conformation
0xaf59050f1176a72536b90a9e71f84b2290c8f932
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$14.59
Total PnL
$-3.34
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.46
$0.00
- NO
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.42
$0.00
- NO
Will Opendoor reach $10 in April?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$1.82
$0.00
- NO
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
2 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$1.62
$0.01
- NO
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$1.34
$0.00
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$1.32
$0.00
- NO
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.31
$0.00
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$1.15
$0.00
- NO
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.13
$0.00
- YES
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-1.17
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Craig Nash win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?$1.98Jul 14, 02:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill PH win the 2026 Johor general elections?$1.78Jul 11, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Craig Nash win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?$1.98Jul 11, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PH win the 2026 Johor general elections?$1.71Jul 11, 06:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill White House post 180-199 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$1.77Jul 8, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 180-199 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$1.75Jul 5, 10:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the People’s Bank of China increase rates in June?$1.14Jul 1, 12:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in Miami be less than $1,072,000 on June 30?$1.88Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the People’s Bank of China increase rates in June?$1.14Jun 29, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in Miami be less than $1,072,000 on June 30?$1.87Jun 29, 08:37 UTC
- REDEEMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?$1.08Jun 16, 14:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 15?$1.54Jun 16, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 15?$1.52Jun 15, 01:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?$1.07Jun 15, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?$2.42Jun 1, 03:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CZ post 60-79 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?$1.34May 9, 04:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Opendoor reach $10 in April?$1.82Apr 30, 03:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?$1.61Apr 29, 09:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$1.32Apr 29, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$1.15Apr 15, 07:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $3.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 12, 02:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 02:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.