Ecstatic-Peanut
0xaf5c6316352e3ce3ffe5a37340b97d520a9bb7da
Wallet digest
Activity score
33/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
51
Open notional
$0.98
Total PnL
$-846.01
Realised
$-45.41
Win rate
0%
51 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 51- NO
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
2 shares @ 51.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.98
$-0.02
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 18?
111477 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-509.77
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 25?
219 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
217 shares @ 46.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 25?
92 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 13?
68 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15?
63 shares @ 7.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on June 11?
57 shares @ 8.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14?
55 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-3.52
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 12?
50 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14?$21.78Jun 15, 08:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14?$14.29Jun 15, 00:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16?$5.17Jun 14, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 16?$4.03Jun 14, 15:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13?$13.00Jun 14, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14?$5.19Jun 14, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14?$5.17Jun 14, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15?$5.20Jun 14, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15?$5.20Jun 14, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15?$5.23Jun 14, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15?$5.22Jun 14, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14?$5.17Jun 13, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14?$4.44Jun 13, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 14?$2.64Jun 13, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 14?$4.08Jun 13, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14?$3.69Jun 13, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14?$5.18Jun 13, 23:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13?$12.00Jun 13, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14?$3.78Jun 13, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 14?$0.94Jun 13, 19:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 51 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
51 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $4.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 03:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 08:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 51 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.