Lasting-Hydrocarbon
0xaf689347b50d0b6e067548d51e3c4c1bb38e5c46
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
167
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-469.72
Realised
$37.86
Win rate
67%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 167- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 11?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 11?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on April 11?
209 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on April 12?
158 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 11?
135 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET
122 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.65
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or higher on April 11?
107 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 12?
103 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
101 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.94
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 12?
101 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C or below on April 12?$0.00Apr 11, 19:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 11?$0.00Apr 11, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$1.00Apr 11, 13:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$4.43Apr 11, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$1.00Apr 11, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$3.00Apr 11, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$1.00Apr 11, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$1.00Apr 11, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$1.00Apr 11, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$1.00Apr 11, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$2.70Apr 11, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$1.00Apr 11, 13:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$6.35Apr 11, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$1.00Apr 11, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$1.00Apr 11, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$3.00Apr 11, 13:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$1.37Apr 11, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$1.00Apr 11, 13:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$6.57Apr 11, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$3.00Apr 11, 13:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $4.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 11, 12:58 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 11, 19:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.