Realistic-Thermostat
0xaf81473fdc4e7a4f9cd54073ba2d122b294fbbbb
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$102.75
Total PnL
$-84.85
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?
11 shares @ 98.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$11.13
$0.13
- YES
Will José Antonio Kast win between 20% and 24% of votes in the first round?
8 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$8.03
$0.03
- YES
Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
5 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$5.10
$0.10
- NO
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025?
5 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.05
$0.05
- NO
Will Tesla reach $615 in November?
5 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$5.04
$0.04
- YES
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%?
5 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$5.03
$0.03
- NO
Will turnout in the first round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be less than 75%?
5 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$5.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Die With a Smile by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars be the 3rd most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?
5 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$5.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Johannes Kaiser win less than 7% of votes in the first round?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$5.00
$0.01
- NO
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?
5 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.98
$-0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill 'Blue Prince' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?$4.00Nov 17, 11:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYJimmy Fallon cancelled by December 31?$4.00Nov 17, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$5.00Nov 17, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in December 2025?$4.00Nov 17, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?$5.00Nov 17, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total number of TSA passengers for November 23-30 be less than 18,000,000?$4.80Nov 17, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill José Antonio Kast win between 20% and 24% of votes in the first round?$4.00Nov 17, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Die With a Smile by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars be the 3rd most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?$5.00Nov 17, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill “The Beast in Me” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 18 2025)$4.60Nov 17, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Michelle “MC” Chukwujekwu win Survivor season 49?$4.30Nov 17, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?$6.00Nov 17, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla reach $615 in November?$5.00Nov 17, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Lyman by November 30?$4.50Nov 17, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%?$5.00Nov 17, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Unidad por Chile gain the most seats in the Senate election?$4.00Nov 17, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025?$5.00Nov 17, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Johannes Kaiser win between 13% and 16% of votes in the first round?$4.00Nov 17, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Johannes Kaiser win less than 7% of votes in the first round?$5.00Nov 17, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill turnout in the first round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be less than 75%?$5.00Nov 17, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill José Antonio Kast win between 20% and 24% of votes in the first round?$4.00Nov 17, 10:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $49.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 10, 15:55 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 17, 11:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".