Improbable-Search
0xaf9b156663011d40e7ae6d32ce6f47de433bd7e2
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-452.87
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will Ethereum reach $4800 August 11–17?
4767 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2025$0.00
$-59.99
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June?
2893 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on September 24?
1591 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 24, 2025$0.00
$-23.00
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?
1490 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2025$0.00
$-35.77
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?
1276 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2025$0.00
$-28.07
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down on August 18?
989 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2025$0.00
$-29.42
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,500 on September 24?
970 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 24, 2025$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $4600 on August 17 at 5PM ET?
952 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2025$0.00
$-60.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4500 on August 16 at 5PM ET?
487 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2025$0.00
$-41.31
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on September 24?$20.27Sep 24, 13:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on September 24?$10.00Sep 24, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $4,500 on September 24?$1.00Sep 24, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on September 24?$1.00Sep 24, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on September 24?$10.00Sep 24, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $4,500 on September 24?$5.00Sep 24, 09:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $4,500 on September 24?$5.00Sep 24, 09:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on September 24?$5.00Sep 24, 09:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on September 24?$6.00Sep 24, 09:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on September 24?$1.00Sep 24, 09:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on August 18?$29.42Aug 18, 03:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on August 17 at 5PM ET?$12.05Aug 17, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $4800 August 11–17?$40.00Aug 17, 04:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be greater than $4600 on August 17 at 5PM ET?$60.00Aug 17, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be less than $4500 on August 16 at 5PM ET?$21.31Aug 16, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be less than $4500 on August 16 at 5PM ET?$20.00Aug 16, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $4800 August 11–17?$20.00Aug 16, 10:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?$227.04Aug 8, 14:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on June 11 at 5 PM ET?$43.75Jun 11, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on June 11 at 5 PM ET?$50.00Jun 11, 13:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $47.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 4, 14:45 UTC
- Last active
- Sep 24, 13:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".