Elderly-Collaboration-Naturalisation
0xafa4126b59397efb02d24288c962c2116c3b1af0
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
126
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-775.31
Realised
$-14.65
Win rate
29%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 126- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9?
2566 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-16.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9?
2507 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - July 1, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
580 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
363 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-19.00
- YUSUKE TAKAHASHI
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Yusuke Takahashi
250 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET
189 shares @ 68.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-130.00
- NO
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?
133 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
113 shares @ 17.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-20.03
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
111 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$10.06Jul 22, 01:32 UTC
- TRADESELLEstoril Open: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tiago Pereira$9.85Jul 21, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYEstoril Open: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tiago Pereira$4.62Jul 21, 12:51 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$0.00Jul 21, 09:05 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$5.15Jul 21, 09:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$5.01Jul 21, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$132.83Jul 20, 09:19 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$0.00Jul 20, 08:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$137.00Jul 20, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$135.72Jul 20, 08:54 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$136.00Jul 20, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$134.64Jul 20, 08:49 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$0.00Jul 20, 08:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$130.00Jul 20, 08:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$128.79Jul 20, 08:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$0.00Jul 20, 08:35 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$120.00Jul 20, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$106.18Jul 20, 08:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$0.00Jul 20, 08:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$89.48Jul 20, 08:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $36.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 12:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 01:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.