Subdued-Ceramic
0xafeef0cfb465b2de941eeb31d7ee4105cf1cc4b3
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$98.04
Total PnL
$-22.41
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January?
29 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$29.00
$0.06
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?
26 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$26.00
$0.03
- NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
26 shares @ 93.1¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$24.04
$-0.17
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
19 shares @ 97.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$19.00
$0.42
- YES
Will Walter Rubén Hernández Juárez win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?
1113 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.11
- YES
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?
240 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$0.00
$-0.24
- YES
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?
23 shares @ 93.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-21.39
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Walter Rubén Hernández Juárez win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?$0.89Jan 28, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?$24.21Jan 24, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Walter Rubén Hernández Juárez win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?$2.00Jan 24, 12:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January?$28.94Jan 24, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?$25.97Jan 24, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?$21.39Jan 24, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?$18.58Dec 19, 00:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan in 2025?$17.89Dec 13, 06:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan in 2025?$4.55Jun 7, 07:31 UTC
- TRADESELLFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting?$20.96Jun 7, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote?$0.00Jun 7, 07:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alibaba have the top AI model on May 31?$19.00Jun 7, 07:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on May 31?$23.38Jun 7, 07:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $200k in May?$30.05Jun 7, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the top AI model on May 31?$9.99May 22, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the top AI model on May 31?$8.99May 22, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote?$0.37May 21, 18:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?$0.08May 21, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%?$0.16May 21, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan in 2025?$20.47May 21, 10:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $14.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 24, 14:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 28, 03:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.