Adored-Necktie
0xaff0281cf79239b1f93b42a5b0221039a8b7f8c1
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
54
Open notional
$8.90
Total PnL
$-276.67
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 54- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
250 shares @ 1.2¢·now 1.9¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.88
$1.88
- YES
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.45
$0.45
- NO
Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?
1 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.25
$0.25
- YES
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
63 shares @ 1.6¢·now 1.9¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.22
$0.22
- YES
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?
11 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.11
$-0.89
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 18?
8830 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-8.83
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 12-18?
7973 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-106.99
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 18?
7610 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-7.61
- YES
Will The Art Of Loving by Olivia Dean be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of January 17?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 12-18?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Apr 29, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?$12.00Feb 5, 05:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?$0.84Feb 5, 05:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?$1.12Feb 5, 05:37 UTC
- TRADESELLSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?$3.22Feb 5, 05:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$7.01Feb 5, 05:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 20?$4.50Jan 20, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 19?$3.00Jan 19, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 19?$10.00Jan 19, 02:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?$3.08Jan 19, 02:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January?$8.02Jan 19, 02:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hyperliquid hit $42 in January?$4.00Jan 18, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 19?$5.00Jan 18, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 19?$11.00Jan 18, 17:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 20?$2.54Jan 18, 17:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?$9.62Jan 18, 17:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day?$6.75Jan 18, 17:28 UTC
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$7.50Jan 18, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 18?$7.61Jan 18, 17:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January?$7.60Jan 18, 17:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $8.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 17, 04:55 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 29, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.