Disastrous-Dysfunction
0xb00d61aa1f1d112094ccdd17130f975d21dfe899
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-744.65
Realised
$-358.22
Win rate
0%
10 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Trump Leave China on May 15?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
350 shares @ 29.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-104.43
- YES
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-05-02?
240 shares @ 30.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-73.84
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET
197 shares @ 39.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-77.55
- YES
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02?
108 shares @ 30.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-33.26
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
55 shares @ 51.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-28.25
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET
53 shares @ 45.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-23.93
- YES
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-23?
51 shares @ 36.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-18.53
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
38 shares @ 51.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-19.65
- YES
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16?
33 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$0.00May 18, 01:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$2.36May 18, 01:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$5.20May 18, 01:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$9.58May 18, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$5.27May 18, 01:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$6.18May 18, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$5.07May 18, 01:33 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$2.46May 18, 01:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$4.30May 18, 01:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$5.25May 18, 01:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$0.00May 18, 01:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$8.35May 18, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$5.21May 18, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$5.26May 18, 01:27 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$9.28May 18, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$9.02May 18, 01:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$17.74May 18, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$9.55May 18, 01:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paris FC win on 2026-05-17?$9.65May 18, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris FC win on 2026-05-17?$1.78May 15, 01:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $22.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 22, 22:25 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 01:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.